Mortgage rates will likely stay high amid the Iran war, experts say. Here’s how to get the best deal anyway

The housing market was expected to rebound this year, but the Iran war has changed that trajectory. Instead, experts predict that mortgage rates will remain higher than previously anticipated, sidelining many shoppers who had hoped to buy a home. 

In early June, the average 30-year fixed-rate was 6.52%, according to Freddie Mac. Just before the war began, rates fell below 6% for the first time in years. The mid-6% rates are higher than what experts believed we'd see this year; they told Select at the close of 2025 that rates could average 6.0% to 6.30% by year's end. Additionally, there was hope that with lower rates, homebuyers would flock to open houses.

The rate environment is typically driven by numerous economic and political events, but the war is driving the movement now, Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com, told CNBC Select. 

"Over the last couple of months, the rate market has been held hostage by this conflict in Iran," he said. "When it looks like a ceasefire is in place and going to stay, rates come down. When it seems like something bad happens or conversations break down, rates go up." 

Rates are likely to remain in the mid-6% range as the war continues, Berner said, higher than experts predicted but lower than last year's numbers — rates were over 6.7% for most of 2025.

"We've been talking for years now about how there's so much pent-up demand, there are a lot of people who want to buy homes but just can't afford it. We just need rates to come down a little bit," Berner said. "But unfortunately, I think it just kind of presses pause on the major housing rebound." 

So far, home sales have ticked up from 2025 — when activity was at a three-decade low — but the market isn't experiencing the robust rebound economists had expected. Berner said he doesn't see this as a reflection of paltry demand for homes, but rather as another instance in which homeowner dreams were dashed by an unforeseen economic event, just as tariffs stunted a potential fall in rates last year. 

"It's just two years in a row we've had something that the administration has done that has pushed this housing market renaissance off another year," he said. "We don't think that there's any reason to suspect that people aren't interested in buying homes." 

If you've been waiting for the best deal on a home purchase, there are ways to get a rate that is significantly lower than the average conventional mortgage rate. Different loan types and lenders can provide you with a rate that may make it possible for you to afford the home you want before rates drop. Below, CNBC Select explains how. 

The Federal Housing Administration is one of three executive branch institutions that back mortgages called FHA loans. The Department of Veterans Affairs backs VA loans and the United States Department of Agriculture backs USDA loans. 

Each of these loans boasts lower rates than conventional mortgages, among other perks. As of June 10,  the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate FHA loan averaged 6.14%, per LendingTree, much lower than the average 30-year, fixed conventional loan rate of 6.60%.

Of the three federally backed products, FHA loans are available to the largest share of the American public. While VA loans are exclusively for Americans who have served in the military and some surviving spouses, and USDA loans are for Americans buying certain properties in select rural and suburban zip codes, FHA loans are available to anyone with a credit score of at least 500. 

With that score, you can put down as little as 10%, and with a credit score of 580 or higher, you can put down as little as 3.5% — much less than many conventional mortgages. 

If you're considering an FHA loan, we recommend starting with Rocket Mortgage. Not only is Rocket one of the largest FHA lenders by volume, but it is also known for its superb customer service: it consistently ranks highly in J.D. Power customer satisfaction surveys and has the highest rating from the Better Business Bureau. It also offers generous customer service hours, a user-friendly website and closes in almost half the industry average time. 

Another great option is Guild Mortgage. Not only will Guild subsidize the mandatory 3.5% with a secondary loan, but it also offers a free 120-day rate lock, much longer than the typical 60 to 90 days offered by most lenders.

If you want a conventional loan, try applying with at least one credit union. Credit unions tend to have lower rates and fees because they are member-owned, not-for-profit institutions. All the money they make goes back into products for their members. 

Two of CNBC Select's favorite Credit Union mortgage lenders are FourLeaf Federal Credit Union and Connexus Credit Union. 

We like both of these options because they have nationwide availability, easy membership requirements, and consistently lower-than-average rates. Both are available nationwide, and you can join by depositing $5 into an account. 

Why trust CNBC Select?

At CNBC Select, our mission is to provide our readers with high-quality service journalism and comprehensive consumer advice so they can make informed financial decisions. Every mortgage review is based on rigorous reporting by our team of expert writers and editors with extensive knowledge of home loan products. While CNBC Select earns a commission from affiliate partners on many offers and links, we create all our content without input from our commercial team or any outside third parties, and we pride ourselves on our journalistic standards and ethics.

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